{"id":4407,"date":"2023-06-05T19:05:24","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T19:05:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:51:31","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:51:31","slug":"are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/","title":{"rendered":"Are we seeing shadow demand for homes?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/t8w84DEE18M\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>This week\u2019s real estate market data includes Memorial Day. Mortgage rates did ratchet back below 7% from a week prior, but maybe that is because of the holiday weekend. The home sales rate did not pick up this week. The rate of new pending home sales fell by 5% this week. That number should rebound a bit in next week\u2019s report, but it remains to be seen whether <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/mortgage-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">mortgage rates<\/a> at nearly 7% are really any better for home buyers than rates just over 7%.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week really contrasts with the trends of the last few months. Home buyers are ready for any opportunity. Recently, I was talking with a mortgage lender about his observation of all the pent-up demand out there for homes. It\u2019s like we have all this shadow demand that is just waiting for any new selection to arrive, or maybe any crack in affordability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you recall, one of the persistent, bearish arguments over the years is that we have a \u201cshadow inventory\u201d of sellers. Meaning people who are ready to sell but who aren\u2019t yet selling. However, <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/articles\/the-unusual-supply-and-demand-dynamics-of-todays-housing-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cshadow demand\u201d <\/a>may be a more apt description of what is going on right now. These are potential buyers waiting for any new inventory, or for rates or prices to drop. And when they do, these buyers are ready to pounce. This is why we could call it \u201cshadow demand\u201d \u2014 it doesn\u2019t show up in things like the mortgage purchase applications, but it\u2019s out there and it\u2019s reasonably well-financed. Ready to act. Our friends at <strong>John Burns Real Estate Consulting<\/strong> pointed out that May was a \u201cphenomenal\u201d month for new home sales. You don\u2019t have phenomenal sales months without underlying demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-inventory\">Inventory<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There are 436,000 single-family homes on the market across the U.S. now. That\u2019s up just a fraction of a percent from last week. There are very few active sellers. There are 16% more homes on the market now than in 2022 at this time. We started 2023 with about 70% more homes on the market than the year prior.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/06\/national-data-video-060523_Page_2.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"national-data-video-060523_Page_2\" class=\"wp-image-46413\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Inventory grew by 0.7% this week which is what the forecasting model expected for the holiday week. The model expects 3% inventory growth each of the next three weeks. The peak of the spring inventory is now. But at the constricted pace we\u2019ve been facing this year, the model has been consistently over-estimating. By this metric, in mid-July we\u2019ll have negative year-over-year inventory growth. One observation is that shrinking inventory year over year is generally associated with home price increases another year out. So that bodes mildly bullish for home prices in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You can see the shape of the curves here in this chart. The dark red line represents the weekly inventory of unsold single-family homes in 2023. In 2022,&nbsp; inventory was increasing by 5-7% per week. It seems very unlikely that we\u2019ll have any surge in inventory. A restricted supply supports future home prices<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While there are 436,000 homes on the market, there are now 402,000 single-family homes in contract. The rate of sales is slowly climbing and closing the gap from 2022. There are 13% fewer homes in contract now than in 2022 at this time. At the start of 2023 there were 35% fewer homes in contract than the year prior. During the COVID-19 Pandemic, there were more homes in contract at any given moment than there were active listings on the market. That trend changed in 2022 when demand cooled and inventory increased. That got us closer to a normal level of inventory. But since demand has increased this year and supply is so restricted<a href=\"https:\/\/www.altosresearch.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">, the data shows<\/a> we\u2019re getting closer to having as many pending as for sale. If you\u2019re still in the camp that thinks there is no demand for homes, this is a really notable trend.\u00a0 That trend took a pause the last two weeks with the holiday and the mortgage jump. I expect the trend to resume in next week\u2019s report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the chart below, the height of the dark bars is the total count of homes in contract the pending stage. The light bar represents the total inventory. You can see how the pending sales volume is approaching the total inventory again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/06\/national-data-video-060523_Page_3.jpg\" alt=\"national-data-video-060523_Page_3\" class=\"wp-image-46420\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>There were only 64,000 new contracts for single-family homes this week. In this chart below, the dark red line represents 2023 and you can really see the sales rate slowdown for the holiday. This is also a week when mortgage rates are still very close to 7%, so purchases have not rebounded yet from last week\u2019s big drop. It\u2019s June so I think it\u2019s very likely that next week\u2019s report will see a rebound in the new contract volume. You can see the jump last year in the light red line \u2014 even in retrospect we know that demand was slowing way down. Each year that volume peaks in June. The details I\u2019ll be looking for here are whether 7% is an actual threshold and if we\u2019re at <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/articles\/do-homebuyers-really-care-about-7-mortgage-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">6.9% mortgage rates, do people buy?<\/a>\u00a0 It\u2019s hard to imagine a big jump in purchases even though rates are down from that spike 10 days ago.\u00a0 But as I mentioned we can see anecdotally the \u201cshadow demand.\u201d There are homebuyers just waiting for any opportunity, and maybe a 20 basis point drop is part of that opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/06\/national-data-video-060523_Page_4.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"national-data-video-060523_Page_4\" class=\"wp-image-46414\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Price<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The price of the homes in contract ticked down this week. We\u2019re at the seasonal peak so it\u2019s not a surprise.\u00a0 The median price of the single-family pending sales is $384,000. That\u2019s down a fraction from last week and 1.5% below 2022 at this time. In July, the dark red line from 2023 will probably be able to catch the light red line from 2022. Home prices are down just a touch from last year. They adjusted down very quickly in July and again in October 2022. If mortgage rates stay at or above 7%, then we could see prices fall again and finish 2023 with home prices down for the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/06\/national-data-video-060523_Page_5.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"national-data-video-060523_Page_5\" class=\"wp-image-46415\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems that the consensus on mortgage rates is that the spreads with the 10-year will compress later in the year and therefore mortgage rates will fall to maybe even as low as 5.5%. I don\u2019t predict mortgage rates, so I don\u2019t know if that\u2019ll happen. But if it does it feels like this shadow demand will jump in quickly and that will definitely keep a floor on home price adjustments, just as it did in the first half of the year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Across the country, the median price of single-family homes is $450,000. That\u2019s unchanged from last week. The market has a tendency to sit at the big round numbers. These are psychological barriers so we get a large number of properties that price around the same level. $450,000 is unchanged from 2022.  The price of homes on the market is the same as they were a year ago.  I expect that red line to stay around this plateau for a few weeks before dipping at the 4th of July holiday.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/06\/national-data-video-060523_Page_6.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"national-data-video-060523_Page_6\" class=\"wp-image-46416\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>With the newly listed cohort this week, we know there are vanishingly few new listings. The price of these homes is 414,900. That\u2019s down from last week and 3% lower than 2022 at this time.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the last indicator of demand we\u2019ll cover today is the price reductions. Just over 30% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. This is a totally normal level. Just 10 basis points more than last week. This time of year price reductions are usually accelerating much more quickly. But this year because inventory is so restricted and demand has remained sufficient all year, few sellers have had to cut their prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/06\/national-data-video-060523_Page_7.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"national-data-video-060523_Page_7\" class=\"wp-image-46417\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The seasonal changes were late this year. Inventory usually bottoms in January or February and this year it kept falling until mid-April. Therefore you can expect the price reductions will rise slowly too. Houses have to be on the market for weeks or months with no offers before they choose to do a price reduction. We\u2019ll see price cuts pick up in June and July, but not until we\u2019re surpassed by the levels in 2018, 2019 and 2022. Basically, by the third quarter, we\u2019ll have fewer price cuts than any year except the two peak pandemic years. That\u2019s what I mean by this shadow demand we can see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/author\/mike-simonsen\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mike Simonsen<\/a>\u00a0is president of Altos Research.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>These are potential buyers waiting for any new inventory, or for rates or prices to drop. And when they do, these buyers are ready to pounce.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39539,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[2926],"class_list":["post-4407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Are we seeing shadow demand for homes? - RealTrends - Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are we seeing shadow demand for homes?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"These are potential buyers waiting for any new inventory, or for rates or prices to drop. And when they do, these buyers are ready to pounce.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RealTrends - Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/9ced5ef4-69ab-4ba7-a7cd-ec49be7b274d.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mike Simonsen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mike Simonsen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Audrey Lee\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/a558315681bd053246bda4e61b549e8b\"},\"headline\":\"Are we seeing shadow demand for homes?\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-05T19:05:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-13T02:51:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/\"},\"wordCount\":1395,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/9ced5ef4-69ab-4ba7-a7cd-ec49be7b274d.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Archive\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/#respond\"]}],\"isAccessibleForFree\":\"False\",\"hasPart\":{\"@type\":\"WebPageElement\",\"isAccessibleForFree\":\"False\",\"cssSelector\":\".wp-block-housingwire-piano-member\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/06\/05\/are-we-seeing-shadow-demand-for-homes\/\",\"name\":\"Are we seeing shadow demand for homes? 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