{"id":4122,"date":"2023-03-20T18:00:45","date_gmt":"2023-03-20T18:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/03\/20\/black-swan\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:50:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:50:02","slug":"black-swan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2023\/03\/20\/black-swan\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: Black Swan events offer opportunity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/housing-market-tracker-banking-crisis-is-a-new-variable\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Silicon Valley Bank<\/strong> meltdown<\/a> shocked the world, and the ripple effects will completely transform the way business is done in many ways. Time will tell how this plays out, but the high-level learnings from \u201cBlack Swan\u201d events such as this one are always incredible and a great time to learn and reflect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that<br>describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often<br>inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. &#8211;<br><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Black_swan_theory\">Wikipedia<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Whenever \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/articles\/black-swans-high-impacts-events-their-impact-on-real-estate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Black Swan<\/a>\u201d events happen, I remind myself of the following (simple) frameworks and philosophies that I have learned &amp; studied over the last few years about \u201cunexpected\u201d events:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u201cWhenever we are surprised by something, even if we admit that we made a mistake, we say, \u2018Oh I\u2019ll never make that mistake again.\u2019 But, in fact, what you should learn when you make a mistake because you did not anticipate something is that the world is difficult to anticipate. That\u2019s the correct lesson to learn from surprises: that the world is surprising.\u201d &#8211; Daniel Kahneman<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u201cThings that have never happened before happen all the time.\u201d &#8211; Scott Sagan, Stanford Professor<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Rare Events Are Not That Rare: One reason we\u2019re bad at assessing and preparing for risk and random events is that we are not good at learning from the past. We mistakenly believe that because something has never happened before, it can\u2019t happen now. We then defend our lack of planning accordingly: \u201cThat had never happened before!\u201d\u00a0 &#8211; Nassim Taleb<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201cRisk is what you don&#8217;t see!\u201d: The biggest economic risk is what no one is talking about, because if no one\u2019s talking about it, no one\u2019s prepared for it, and if no one\u2019s prepared for it, its damage will be amplified when it arrives,\u201d Housel said. \u201cThink about risk the way California thinks about earthquakes,\u201d Housel said. \u201cIf you live in California, you know there are going to be big earthquakes in your future but you don\u2019t know when or where . . . but you have an expectation . . . you are always prepared for it.\u201d &#8211; Morgan Housel<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to these mental frameworks, I love to study history instead of reading \u201cfuture forecasts from experts\u201d. History is a great way to learn how things happened and unfolded, and you will notice that no 2 events are ever the same. Humans tend to have a bias to try to predict future events from other recent events also known as \u201crecency bias\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>For example, how many times do you see headlines with some sort of twist on the following\u2026. \u201cthe next 2008 crisis is happening now\u201d OR\u2026. \u201cthis is going to be just like the DOT COM bust!\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong><em>Always prepare for the unexpected surprises that will happen 100% of the time at an uncertain time in the future!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/articles\/how-does-the-housing-market-track-equity-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2008 financial crisis<\/a> and the dot-com bust were events unique to themselves and will probably never happen in the exact same fashion ever again; although future crises may have similarities, the future is completely unknown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Focus on controlling what you can control and always build a margin of safety around your life and your business and most importantly, always prepare for the unexpected surprises that will happen 100% of the time at an uncertain time in the future!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of RealTrend&#8217;s editorial department and its owners.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To contact the author of this story:<br>Sam Sawyer at <a href=\"mailto:sam@pinnaclera.com\">sam@pinnaclera.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To contact the editor responsible for this story:<br>Tracey Velt at&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:tracey@hwmedia.com\">tracey@hwmedia.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Black Swan events, such as the current banking crisis and others are always a great time to learn and reflect.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15802,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3100],"class_list":["post-4122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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