{"id":3569,"date":"2022-10-12T14:02:21","date_gmt":"2022-10-12T14:02:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/10\/12\/stop-using-2021-sales-as-a-benchmark-for-home-sales\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:47:14","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:47:14","slug":"stop-using-2021-sales-as-a-benchmark-for-home-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/10\/12\/stop-using-2021-sales-as-a-benchmark-for-home-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"Stop using 2021 sales as a benchmark for home sales"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The pandemic years, especially 2021, were a strange aberration where\u00a0<em>everyone<\/em> moved, <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/articles\/home-prices-accelerated-at-fastest-pace-in-47-year-during-q1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">house prices skyrocketed<\/a>, and nearly every real estate business posted record revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why it matters:<\/strong>\u00a02022 is constantly being compared to 2021, which was anything but normal, and year-over-year comparisons are painting a deeply negative picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dig deeper:\u00a0<\/strong>Assuming a fairly conservative 5.15 million existing home sales in 2022, the comparison to last year is a sobering 16% drop \u2014 but 2021 is an outlier, not a benchmark.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Compared to the historical average of the previous eight years (2012\u20132019), transaction volumes in 2022 would be down only 0.9%.<\/li><li>\u00a0By contrast, compared to the same historical average, transaction volumes were up 9% in 2020 and 18% in 2021 \u2014 notable outliers.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2022\/10\/image2.png?w=1024\" alt=\"image2\" class=\"wp-image-34495\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Comparing 2022&#8217;s<\/strong>\u00a0monthly volumes to the historical average reveals recent volume declines that are still significant, but less extreme than a year-over-year comparison to 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2022\/10\/Image3.png?w=1024\" alt=\"Image3\" class=\"wp-image-34496\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>But in reality<\/strong>, 2022 has tracked favorably to the historical average and is still in somewhat &#8220;normal&#8221; territory, even considering the recent market slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2022\/10\/Image4.png?w=1024\" alt=\"Image4\" class=\"wp-image-34497\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The big picture:\u00a0<\/strong>Despite dropping volumes, the commission pool &#8212; which fuels the revenue of real estate agents, brokerages, portals, software providers, and more &#8212; is set\u00a0to be 34%, or $25 billion, higher than 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>This massive increase\u00a0is being driven by rising home prices.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>It would take a drop to 4 million existing home sales for the commission pool to hit what it was in 2019:\u00a0$73 billion<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2022\/10\/image5.png?w=1024\" alt=\"image5\" class=\"wp-image-34498\"\/><figcaption>These estimates assume 5.15 million existing home sales at an average price of $375,000 with a commission of 5.06%, as tracked by RealTrends. <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The bottom line<\/strong>: The pandemic years of 2020 and especially 2021 were radical outliers on a number of levels, real estate being just one.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Issues of home affordability, dropping sales volumes, and rising interest rates are all contributing to a challenging 2022.<br><\/li><li>But, if we consider 2021\u00a0the outlier and not\u00a0the benchmark, the market in\u00a02022 doesn&#8217;t look nearly as catastrophic as headlines suggest.<br><\/li><li>In fact, from a business perspective, there is significantly more money flowing through the system (from commissions) than any year other than\u00a02021.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Mike DelPrete is a real estate technology and market strategist.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of RealTrends\u2019 editorial department and its owners.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To contact the author of this story:<br>Mike DelPrete at&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:mike@mikedp.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">mike@mikedp.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To contact the editor responsible for this story:<br>Tracey Velt at <a href=\"mailto:tracey@hwmedia.com\">tracey@hwmedia.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 were radical outliers on a number of levels, but especially for the real estate market says Consultant Mike Del Prete.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15802,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[2227],"class_list":["post-3569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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