{"id":3170,"date":"2022-05-31T14:34:27","date_gmt":"2022-05-31T14:34:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/05\/31\/ipo-no-why-real-estate-companies-stopped-going-public\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:43:56","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:43:56","slug":"ipo-no-why-real-estate-companies-stopped-going-public","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/05\/31\/ipo-no-why-real-estate-companies-stopped-going-public\/","title":{"rendered":"IPO no: Why real estate companies stopped going public"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Last June, Guy Gal was staring ahead at Wall Street. The chief executive officer for real estate brokerage Side<\/strong> announced a fresh $50 million in venture capital money spearheaded by ultra-prolific financier<\/a> Tiger Global Management<\/strong>. The San Francisco company was now \u201cbacked by the top three technology initial public offering underwriters,\u201d Side announced at the time<\/a>, and the money raise \u201csets the stage for a future IPO.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, though, Side is radio silent on going public. Gal and other company representatives did not return messages for this article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Side is no outlier. After a few years of brokerages going public, a list that includes Compass<\/strong>,<\/a> Offerpad<\/a><\/strong>, Opendoor<\/strong>,<\/a> and Redfin<\/a><\/strong>, real estate companies are now keeping matters private. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

These include HomeSmart<\/strong>, the Scottsdale, Arizona-based brokerage that disclosed its financials in January, and Keller Williams Realty<\/strong>, which has faced rumors since the beginning of time, or at least the last five years, about going public. Messages left with HomeSmart were not returned. Keller Williams declined to comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason to stay private is twofold, industry experts said. One is people dislike where the economy is headed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI would largely chalk up any shelving of plans to go public to the macro backdrop including stock market volatility, recession fears and slowing housing,\u201d said Thomas McJoynt, an equity research analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods<\/strong> who focuses upon real estate and mortgage companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another, though, is fading enthusiasm from investors and IPO underwriters that a company can upend the notoriously fragmented residential real estate industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor many years, everyone thought brokerage was ripe for major disruption,\u201d said Gilles Duranton, real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania. \u201cNew ventures have tried to disrupt it in all sorts of ways. But no one has really managed to make a big dent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seeing red<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent brokerage IPO wave started with Redfin in 2017. With a popular listings web site, salaried employees as agents<\/a>, and eventually iBuying, the Seattle-based company fit to a t the notion of a tech-forward outfit that could shake things up.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

CEO Glenn Kelman deemed his company \u201cthe Amazon of real estate,\u201d a one-stop shop for all things housing. \u201cWe can\u2019t just reinvent half of it. We got to do the whole thing!\u201d Kelman declared at the time<\/a> of the company\u2019s initial public offering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One year after that, eXp Realty<\/strong>, a brokerage known<\/a> for its virtual platform and multi-level marketing plan, moved from an over-the-counter Canadian stock exchange to Nasdaq<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, in the year following COVID-19\u2019s U.S. onset, Compass, a brokerage<\/a> that billed its tech as providing real estate agents an edge, and Offerpad and Opendoor, iBuyers who are also registered brokerages, went public<\/a>. These companies debuted on Wall Street amid both the highest home appreciation and most home sales in 15 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe 18-month post-COVID period presented an excellent window for any real estate transaction volume-dependent business to entertain attractive initial valuations,\u201d McJoynt said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But those valuations have fallen. Compass, for instance, premiered on the New York Stock Exchange<\/strong> trading at $19 a share with an $8 billion valuation. The company\u2019s stock is currently at just over $5 with a little over $2 billion market capitalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Redfin stock has seen a lot of fluctuation. The company\u2019s stock began trading at $22 a share in 2017 and zoomed to a $76 share price last February. But today Redfin stock is at just over $9, with a valuation of a little over $1 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stock price has not correlated<\/a> with either Redfin\u2019s top-line revenue or bottom-line income. Redfin did lose $91 million in the first quarter of 2022 compared to $36 million in Q1 2021. But the company\u2019s revenue more than doubled to $597 million. The increased revenue but growing losses are both traceable to an internal ramp up of iBuying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What gives with the stock price, then? The company, which declined to comment, has in general connected its fluctuations to investors’ overall thoughts on real estate, not anything Redfin-specific. In other words, the macro backdrop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith raising mortgage rates, Wall Street thinks housing sales will go in the tank, so they are lowering their earnings expectations for all of them,\u201d said Steve Murray, senior advisor at RealTrends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there may also be some frustration from investors with Redfin and other real estate outfits, said Jay Ritter, a business professor at the University of Florida who focuses on stock market activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRedfin is still a legitimate, possibly successful company,\u201d Ritter said. \u201cBut a lot of that run-up has been ever-increasing expectations about the future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was some hope among investors, Ritter said, that Redfin, or Zillow<\/strong> or Compass, or some company<\/em> they were placing a bet on, could emerge as a one-stop stop, \u201cBenefiting from some network effects and become dominant.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, rightly or wrongly, investors now see no model disrupting a brokerage industry replete with dozens of established entrants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One possible exception, Duranton noted, is Compass, which in a decade has become the largest brokerage by market share. But Compass did this after \u201cmaking huge investments,\u201d and creating a brokerage model that \u201cdiffers minimally\u201d from competitors like Sotheby\u2019s International Realty<\/strong> or Douglas Elliman<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Said Murray, \u201cInvestors finally realize that whether or not these proptech firms are fast-growing on their top lines, there is no path to profitability for some or most of them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s keep this private<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, Rainy Hake Austin excitedly charted the future. Her brokerage, The Agency<\/strong>, which has significantly expanded since Austin took over as president in late 2020, had just announced the acquisition<\/a> of New York brokerage Triplemint<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re going to build from the coast and into the middle,\u201d Austin said, about The Agency\u2019s nationwide plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What about going public?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s one option,\u201d Austin replied. \u201cBut that\u2019s not the only option.\u201d The executive then went on to talk about first developing The Agency\u2019s mortgage, title, and other ancillary services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Side, according to people at the company who spoke on the condition of anonymity, similarly plans now to see how much it can grow before going public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Less clear is the future of HomeSmart, which on Jan. 7, filed an S-1<\/a>, the initial registration statement companies file before going public. According to that statement, HomeSmart retained J.P. Morgan <\/strong>and BofA Securities<\/strong> among others to underwrite the shares. HomeSmart declared itself, a \u201crevolutionary real estate enterprise powered by our proprietary end-to-end technology platform,” the S-1 states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The company has made no subsequent filings except an amended S-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keller Williams, meanwhile, has faced persistent calls to go public, especially after its creation of the holding company, KWx<\/strong> in October 2020. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are aware of what HomeSmart has attempted to do, and we had heard Side was planning to do something,\u201d Murray said. \u201cOther than the rumors of Keller Williams planning to do something, either IPO or private sale or SPAC, we are not aware of anyone else considering it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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