{"id":3070,"date":"2022-04-29T14:06:40","date_gmt":"2022-04-29T14:06:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:41:38","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:41:38","slug":"a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/","title":{"rendered":"NAR: a return to a &#8220;much calmer&#8221; housing market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For the fifth consecutive month, pending home sales declined in March from February, down 1.2%, signaling a potential return to \u201cmuch calmer\u201d conditions, according to the <strong>National Association of Realtors<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Only the northeast region saw an increase in pending sales in March from February, according to an NAR news release based off data from its pending home sales index. But compared to the prior year, \u201cpending sales fell for the 10<sup>th<\/sup> consecutive month, by 8.2%, with pending sales down across all regions.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the <strong>NAR<\/strong>, said the dip in contract signings suggests \u201cmultiple offers will soon dissipate and be replaced by much calmer and normalized market conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also expects higher mortgage rates to remain a key factor affecting home sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yun forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will reach 5.3% by the fourth quarter, resulting in a 2022 mortgage rate average of 4.9%. The average mortgage rate should jump to 5.4% by 2023, Yun said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAs it stands, the sudden large gains in mortgage rates have reduced the pool of eligible homebuyers, and that has consequently lowered buying activity,\u201d Yun said. \u201cThe aspiration to purchase a home remains, but the financial capacity has become a major limiting factor.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yun additionally expects inflation will average 8.2% for the year, \u201calthough it will start to moderate to 5.5% in the second half of this year.\u201d As of March the higher mortgage rates and sustained price appreciation has resulted in a year-over-year increase of 31% in mortgage payments \u2013 although major Sun Belt metros such as <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/the-cash-crunch-facing-buyers-in-the-sun-belt\/?utm_campaign=Newsletter%20-%20HousingWire%20Daily&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsmi=211357301&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_DQRC8teM5mQJ0I1vP2ySRiDVEuKHqp6nkQTVoIDoLB-iZVgqfwb-YWCv5U4rLiFfJTFObgapHmJIs9djBcQBw1bieOQ&amp;utm_content=211357301&amp;utm_source=hs_email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas have seen increases closer to 50% year-over-year<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite that, Yun said: \u201cOverall existing-home sales this year look to be down 9% from the <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/existing-home-sales-crush-the-housing-bears-again\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">heated pace of last year<\/a>. Home prices are in <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/massive-home-price-appreciation-set-to-slow-as-sellers-return\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">no danger of decline<\/a> on a nationwide basis, but the price gains will steadily decelerate such that the median home price in 2022 will likely be up 8% from last year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Renters will face similar increases, which Yun says could prompt some renters to explore ownership \u2013 although the <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/new-home-sales-are-at-risk-with-rising-mortgage-rates-%EF%BF%BC\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">increasing mortgage rates<\/a> may price them out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cFast-rising rents will encourage renters to consider buying a home, though higher <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/mortgage-rates-soar-to-4-42-following-rate-hike\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">mortgage rates<\/a> will present challenges,\u201d Yun said. \u201cStrong rent growth nonetheless will lead to a boom in multifamily housing starts, with more than 20% growth this year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even as home inventory remains low, Yun also expects single-family homebuilders to take a cautionary approach, resulting only in a modest \u201cboost to construction of less than 5%.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pending home sales declined for the fifth consecutive month and compared to the prior year pending sales fell for the 10th consecutive month, by 8.2%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39491,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[2584],"class_list":["post-3070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NAR: a return to a &quot;much calmer&quot; housing market - RealTrends - Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pending home sales fell for the fifth consecutive month. Compared to prior year pending sales fell for the 10th consecutive month, by 8.2%.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NAR: a return to a &quot;much calmer&quot; housing market\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pending home sales fell for the fifth consecutive month. Compared to prior year pending sales fell for the 10th consecutive month, by 8.2%.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RealTrends - Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/9ced5ef4-69ab-4ba7-a7cd-ec49be7b274d.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kate Douglas\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kate Douglas\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Kate Douglas\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/2bdb1dea26ac357973c9d8375b341ebc\"},\"headline\":\"NAR: a return to a &#8220;much calmer&#8221; housing market\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-04-29T14:06:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-13T02:41:38+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/\"},\"wordCount\":409,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/9ced5ef4-69ab-4ba7-a7cd-ec49be7b274d.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Archive\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/#respond\"]}],\"isAccessibleForFree\":\"False\",\"hasPart\":{\"@type\":\"WebPageElement\",\"isAccessibleForFree\":\"False\",\"cssSelector\":\".wp-block-housingwire-piano-member\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/\",\"name\":\"NAR: a return to a \\\"much calmer\\\" housing market - RealTrends - Blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/29\/a-more-normalized-housing-market-is-on-the-horizon-nar\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/9ced5ef4-69ab-4ba7-a7cd-ec49be7b274d.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-04-29T14:06:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-13T02:41:38+00:00\",\"description\":\"Pending home sales fell for the fifth consecutive month. 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