{"id":2723,"date":"2022-01-03T14:27:51","date_gmt":"2022-01-03T14:27:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/01\/03\/logan-mohtashami-the-2022-housing-forecast\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:39:52","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:39:52","slug":"logan-mohtashami-the-2022-housing-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2022\/01\/03\/logan-mohtashami-the-2022-housing-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2022 housing market forecast from Logan Mohtashami"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/HW-2022-forecast.png\" alt=\"HW-2022-forecast\" class=\"wp-image-334117\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article is part of our HousingWire 2022 forecast series. After the series wraps early next year, join us on February 8 for the HW+ Virtual 2022 Forecast Event. Bringing together some of the top economists and researchers in housing, the event will provide an in-depth look at the predictions for next year, along with a roundtable discussion on how these insights apply to your business. The event is <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/membership\/\"><em>exclusively for HW+ members<\/em><\/a><em>, and you can <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/webinar\/hw-virtual-2022-forecast-event\/\"><em>go here to register<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most of the time, the economy is like a slow-moving ocean liner that changes direction gradually and without much effort. But when a new, powerful variable presents itself, like the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, the economy can change on a dime. COVID was a veritable iceberg for our ocean liner economy, but the ship did not go down!&nbsp;Even in the extreme conditions of COVID-19, my general premise on housing economics predicted that the two variables with the most influence \u2014 demographics and mortgage rates \u2014 would hold up the housing market.&nbsp;With those two factors still very much in play, here is my 2022 forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-10-year-yield-and-mortgage-rates\"><strong>The 10-year yield and mortgage rates<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>The forecast<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>For 2022,&nbsp;my&nbsp;range for the 10-year yield is<strong> 0.62%-1.94%<\/strong>, similar to 2021. Accordingly, my upper end range in mortgage rates is&nbsp;<strong>3.375%-3.625%<\/strong>&nbsp;and the lower end range is&nbsp;<strong>2.375%-2.50%<\/strong>. This is very similar to what I have done in the past, paying my respects to the downtrend in bond yields since 1981. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We had a few times in the previous cycle where the 10-year yield was below 1.60% and above 3%. Regarding 4% plus mortgage rates, I can make a case for higher yields, but this would require the world economies functioning all together in a world with no pandemic. For this scenario, Japan and Germany yields need to rise, which would push our 10-year yield toward <strong>2.42%<\/strong> and get mortgage rates over 4%. Current conditions don\u2019t support this. <strong>>>>Continued on <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/logan-mohtashami-the-2022-housing-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">HousingWire.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article was originally published by HousingWire. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/existing-home-sales-data-continues-to-outperform\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">full article is available on HousingWire.com<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/what-is-the-next-step-for-nar\/?__hstc=43385018.3580f2db3ddbe8fcf47fa6c91c7501c6.1638554761217.1641043083390.1641219525780.64&amp;__hssc=43385018.1.1641219525780&amp;__hsfp=433343651\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&nbsp;<\/a>for HW+ Members.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami gives his housing market forecast for 2022 for mortgage rates, the 10-year yield, existing home sales and more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":707,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[1585],"class_list":["post-2723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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