{"id":2711,"date":"2021-12-17T15:09:07","date_gmt":"2021-12-17T15:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/12\/17\/opendoor-vs-zillow-comparing-pricing-models\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:39:51","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:39:51","slug":"opendoor-vs-zillow-comparing-pricing-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/12\/17\/opendoor-vs-zillow-comparing-pricing-models\/","title":{"rendered":"Opendoor vs. Zillow: Comparing pricing models"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><meta charset=\"utf-8\">A\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/mikedp.us15.list-manage.com\/track\/click?u=bc08d9a05ce4a7baada0a3bfc&amp;id=f832ae6909&amp;e=7bfa474041\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">catastrophic pricing failure<\/a>\u00a0sunk Zillow&#8217;s iBuyer business. Clearly, home price appreciation is a key factor of the housing market in 2021 and beyond. And being able to accurately predict house prices &#8212; not only today, but into the future &#8212; is a non-negotiable prerequisite for iBuyers.\u00a0Let&#8217;s look at iBuyer pricing models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><meta charset=\"utf-8\">The best leading indicator of effective and accurate pricing\u00a0is the buy-to-list premium; the difference between the purchase price and current listing price of a home. Unlike <strong>Opendoor<\/strong>, <strong>Zillow<\/strong> overpaid for the homes it acquired and is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/mikedp.us15.list-manage.com\/track\/click?u=bc08d9a05ce4a7baada0a3bfc&amp;id=494f52a38e&amp;e=7bfa474041\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">selling them for a loss<\/a>; a negative buy-to-list premium, and a big problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2021\/12\/Screen-Shot-2021-12-17-at-10.02.57-AM.png\" alt=\"Screen-Shot-2021-12-17-at-10.02.57-AM\" class=\"wp-image-20769\" width=\"530\" height=\"323\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Opendoor&#8217;s median buy-to-list premium is rising once again, a sign of a healthy pricing and resale operation that is successfully reading the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While Opendoor&#8217;s\u00a0<em>median<\/em>\u00a0buy-to-list premium is higher than <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/a-zillow-problem-or-an-ibuying-problem\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Zillow&#8217;s<\/a>, the magic is in the distribution curve. Opendoor has a wide distribution of premiums that skews higher, leading to higher gross profits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2021\/12\/Screen-Shot-2021-12-17-at-10.05.36-AM.png\" alt=\"Screen-Shot-2021-12-17-at-10.05.36-AM\" class=\"wp-image-20770\" width=\"640\" height=\"373\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The finesse of Opendoor&#8217;s pricing curve has been refined and improved over the past month. Not only has its median buy-to-list premium increased, but the percentage of listings with higher premiums has increased; the curve has shifted to the right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2021\/12\/Screen-Shot-2021-12-17-at-10.06.42-AM.png\" alt=\"Screen-Shot-2021-12-17-at-10.06.42-AM\" class=\"wp-image-20771\" width=\"625\" height=\"386\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-matter-of-timing\">A matter of timing<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The buy-to-list premium is a&nbsp;<em>leading<\/em>&nbsp;indicator and a predictor of what is to come. The price a home sells for (buy-to-sale) is typically, but not always, a few percentage points lower than the listing price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though Opendoor&#8217;s buy-to-list premium is rising in Q4, its home price appreciation will be quite low for the quarter due to the intense pricing pressure of the previous quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strategic implications<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>A comparison of Zillow Offers and Opendoor highlights the critical importance of pricing in iBuying. There&#8217;s an understated elegance in the detail; it&#8217;s not just buying low and selling high. A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mikedp.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">successful pricing\u00a0<em>operation<\/em><\/a>\u00a0&#8212; not just an algorithm, but people! &#8212; needs to work at scale, needs to improve over time, and needs to be more nuanced than a brute-force bell curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the Zillow Offers collapse has demonstrated, pricing is a true potential competitive advantage for iBuyers. Getting it right is a prerequisite for success, while getting it wrong can lead to catastrophic failures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Being able to accurately predict house prices &#8212; not only today, but into the future &#8212; is a non-negotiable prerequisite for iBuyers.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15802,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[2227],"class_list":["post-2711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Opendoor vs. Zillow: Comparing pricing models - RealTrends - Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For iBuyers accurately predict house prices they must have pricing models that are accurate and effective in today&#039;s market.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/12\/17\/opendoor-vs-zillow-comparing-pricing-models\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Opendoor vs. Zillow: Comparing pricing models\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For iBuyers accurately predict house prices they must have pricing models that are accurate and effective in today&#039;s market.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/12\/17\/opendoor-vs-zillow-comparing-pricing-models\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RealTrends - 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