{"id":2651,"date":"2021-11-15T18:03:59","date_gmt":"2021-11-15T18:03:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/11\/15\/a-zillow-problem-or-an-ibuying-problem\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:39:35","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:39:35","slug":"a-zillow-problem-or-an-ibuying-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/11\/15\/a-zillow-problem-or-an-ibuying-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"A Zillow problem or an iBuying problem?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/Rih-Barton-HW.jpg\" alt=\"Rich Barton - HW+\" class=\"wp-image-297256\"\/><figcaption>Zillow CEO Rich Barton.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>For nearly a decade Lee Kennedy commandeered nuclear submarines for the U.S. Navy and when the Cold War ended, he sought a different path to apply his education in nuclear engineering. Kennedy landed a job at <strong>American Savings Bank<\/strong>, later acquired by <strong>Washington Mutual<\/strong>, and he helmed the company\u2019s fledging Alternative Valuation Business Unit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the late 1990s, Kennedy said, data storage and computing power was growing cheaper. Washington Mutual felt increasingly comfortable using data points about a single-family home \u2013 when the property was built, its location, available purchase price history \u2013 as fuel powering a valuation model to extend someone a home equity line of credit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fast forward to today, and alternative valuation models \u2013 redubbed automated valuation models or AVMs \u2013 are deployed to extend credit, appraise a home, and \u2013 in the case of iBuyers \u2013 even guide when to purchase a home for cash that might be profitable to resell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When <strong>Zillow<\/strong> waved the white flag on its iBuying operation earlier this month, CEO Rich Barton couched the company\u2019s price forecasting model as something of a Frankenstein\u2019s monster, an audacious curiosity that <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/inside-zillows-misadventures-in-ibuying\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">proved too dangerous<\/a>. \u201cOur observed error rate has been far more volatile than we ever expected possible,\u201d Barton said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To some housing executives who routinely use AVMs, Barton\u2019s explanation rang false. \u201cThis is not a problem with valuation models,\u201d said Matt Woods, CEO of real estate consulting service <strong>Sold.com<\/strong>. \u201cThis is a Zillow problem.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But to Kennedy, who for the last 16 years has run <strong>AVMetrics<\/strong> in Simi Valley, California, an evaluator of AVMs for client companies, what happened at Zillow is not surprising.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s different about Zillow? \u201cMost of my clients are large lending institutions and shy away from publicly admitting a mistake,\u201d Kennedy said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With Zillow out, there are two publicly traded companies, <strong>Opendoor<\/strong> and <strong>Offerpad, <\/strong>whose predominant business model is iBuying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both are scaling up rapidly. Opendoor<a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/groundhog-day-opendoor-keeps-growing-and-losing-money\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> posted<\/a> a 91% revenue increase to $2.3 billion in its quarter three earnings report released Wednesday. Offerpad<a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/offerpad-says-its-cracking-the-ibuyer-code\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> revenue grew<\/a> 30% to $540 million in the third quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But neither has found a profitable path even amid a booming housing market. Opendoor lost $56.8 million in the quarter. Offerpad posted a $15.3 million loss, though it was <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/ibuyer-offerpad-claims-profitability-pre-ipo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">profitable in the second quarter<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kennedy is skeptical that a pricing model can ever work for Opendoor, Offerpad or future iBuyers. Such a model, the engineer pointed out, must assess current value while baking in near-term price fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cInflection points in the market are hard to predict,\u201d Kennedy said. &#8230;<em>Article continued on <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/a-zillow-problem-or-an-ibuying-problem\/#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">HousingWire.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article was originally published by HousingWire. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/a-zillow-problem-or-an-ibuying-problem\/#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">full article is available on HousingWire.com<\/a>\u00a0for HW+ Members.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When Zillow waved the white flag on its iBuying operation earlier this month, CEO Rich Barton couched the company&#8217;s price forecasting model as something of a Frankenstein&#8217;s monster, an audacious curiosity that proved too danger. To some housing executives who routinely use AVMs, Barton&#8217;s explanation rang false. HW+ Premium Content<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16592,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[736],"class_list":["post-2651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Zillow problem or an iBuying problem? - RealTrends - Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"When Zillow waved the white flag on its iBuying operation earlier this month, CEO Rich Barton couched the company&#039;s price forecasting model as something of a Frankenstein&#039;s monster, an audacious curiosity that proved too danger. To some housing executives who routinely use AVMs, Barton&#039;s explanation rang false. HW+ Premium Content When Zillow waved the white flag on its iBuying operation earlier this month, CEO Rich Barton couched the company&#039;s price forecasting model as something of a Frankenstein&#039;s monster, an audacious curiosity that proved too danger. To some housing executives who routinely use AVMs, Barton&#039;s explanation rang false.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/11\/15\/a-zillow-problem-or-an-ibuying-problem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Zillow problem or an iBuying problem?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When Zillow waved the white flag on its iBuying operation earlier this month, CEO Rich Barton couched the company&#039;s price forecasting model as something of a Frankenstein&#039;s monster, an audacious curiosity that proved too danger. To some housing executives who routinely use AVMs, Barton&#039;s explanation rang false. HW+ Premium Content When Zillow waved the white flag on its iBuying operation earlier this month, CEO Rich Barton couched the company&#039;s price forecasting model as something of a Frankenstein&#039;s monster, an audacious curiosity that proved too danger. 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