{"id":2608,"date":"2021-11-03T10:31:45","date_gmt":"2021-11-03T10:31:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/11\/03\/how-zillows-model-crushed-its-ibuying-business\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:39:29","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:39:29","slug":"how-zillows-model-crushed-its-ibuying-business","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/11\/03\/how-zillows-model-crushed-its-ibuying-business\/","title":{"rendered":"How Zillow’s model crushed its iBuying business"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"down<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday Zillow<\/strong> announced it will be shutting down its Offers business, which wasn\u2019t too much of a shock considering how their stock had been performing for some time. The news was that they had been overpaying for homes and their losses on those purchases were getting larger and larger. Life being a publicly traded company can be fantastic or brutal at times. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated,\u201d Zillow CEO Rich Barton said in a press release as part of the company\u2019s third-quarter earnings report. \u201cContinuing to scale Zillow Offers would result in too much earnings and balance-sheet volatility.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecasting home prices isn’t easy if the goal is to get a reasonable rate of return, since rate-of-growth pricing matters more in that scenario. One of the reasons why I stressed earlier this year that the rate of growth in home prices would cool off is that we didn\u2019t have a credit boom this year, like what we saw from 2002-2005. After you make some COVID-19 adjustments, demand is stable, not booming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From my article in April:<\/a> \u201cThis is my take on the reason why we saw double-digit year-over-year growth earlier this year. One thing that happened last year is that existing home sales never got back to 5,710,000 \u2013 5,840,000. This was the level I had been talking about last year that should be the target due to how February 2020 sales were going. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Because we ended the year at only 5,640,000 total existing-home sales, I left the opening that we could see makeup demand early in 2021.\u201d\u00a0I included the weekly purchase application numbers from MBA showing year-over-year growth for the first 11 weeks of 2021: +3%, +10%, +15%, +16%, +16%, +17%, +15%<\/strong>, +7%, +1%, +2%, +5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The point I was making with this data in April is that the early housing demand growth year over year \u2014 which looks great on paper \u2014 has more to do with make-up demand in 2020 spilling forward into the early part of 2021. While demand is solid and in the existing home sales range of 5,840,000 – 6,200,000, which I have talked about on HousingWire a lot this year, this isn\u2019t booming credit demand but very stable.\u00a0 …Article continued on HousingWire.com.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was originally published by HousingWire. The\u00a0f<\/a>ull article is available on HousingWire.com<\/a>\u00a0for HW+ Members.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zillow’s stock price spoke volumes recently, but the recent news of more losses on their iBuying business just forced their hand. 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