{"id":2552,"date":"2021-10-08T16:01:49","date_gmt":"2021-10-08T16:01:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:39:19","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:39:19","slug":"when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/","title":{"rendered":"When will mortgage rates get over 4%?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/HW-mortgage-rate-question.png\" alt=\"HW+ mortgage rate question\" class=\"wp-image-323845\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In several previous articles I have opined that an increase in mortgage rates may be our only hope for slowing the escalation of home prices that we&#8217;ve been experiencing for the past year. With mortgage rates hitting <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/mortgage-rates-finally-eclipse-the-3-mark\/\">above 3%<\/a> last week for the first time since June, it\u2019s a good time to revisit this conversation and what we should expect next for mortgage rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the summer of 2020, I have argued that if mortgage rates <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/mortgage-rates-center\/\">could get over 3.75%<\/a>, days on market would rise and the rate of price growth would cool. This will be bullish for housing because the price gains we have been seeing are extremely unhealthy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A common theme in the interviews I have done in 2021 has been that this is the unhealthiest housing market since 2010 \u2014 not because we have a credit boom or a bubble forming, but because we have forced bidding on too few homes. We need the days on market to grow out of the teenager stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the antidote to our housing market ills is higher mortgage rates, when can we expect getting this cure? The unfortunate answer is not anytime soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are familiar with my work, you are aware that I rely heavily on the movements of the 10-year yield to guide my mortgage rate predictions. Even though I have been extremely bullish on the U.S. economy, my bond market forecast for the 10-year yield in 2021 was that it wouldn\u2019t go above <strong>1.94%,<\/strong> with the lower end of the range being <strong>0.62%.<\/strong> This translates into the upper range of mortgage rates to be <strong>3.375%-3.625%<\/strong> at best, and lower end of the range to be<strong> 2.25% &#8211; 2.375%.<\/strong>  <strong>Article continues on<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">HousingWire.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article was originally published by HousingWire. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.housingwire.com\/articles\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">full article is available on HousingWire.com<\/a>\u00a0for HW+ Members.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With mortgage rates hitting above 3% last week for the first time since June, it\u2019s a good time to revisit what we should expect next for mortgage rates. HW+ Premium Content<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":707,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[1585],"class_list":["post-2552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.4 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>When will mortgage rates get over 4%? - RealTrends - Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With mortgage rates hitting above 3% last week for the first time since June, it\u2019s a good time to revisit what we should expect next for mortgage rates.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When will mortgage rates get over 4%?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With mortgage rates hitting above 3% last week for the first time since June, it\u2019s a good time to revisit what we should expect next for mortgage rates.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RealTrends - Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/9ced5ef4-69ab-4ba7-a7cd-ec49be7b274d.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Logan Mohtashami\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Logan Mohtashami\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Logan Mohtashami\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/9ae58af5962594d066d1c2f780005c55\"},\"headline\":\"When will mortgage rates get over 4%?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-10-08T16:01:49+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-13T02:39:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/\"},\"wordCount\":305,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/03\/9ced5ef4-69ab-4ba7-a7cd-ec49be7b274d.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Archive\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/#respond\"]}],\"isAccessibleForFree\":\"False\",\"hasPart\":{\"@type\":\"WebPageElement\",\"isAccessibleForFree\":\"False\",\"cssSelector\":\".wp-block-housingwire-piano-member\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/10\/08\/when-will-mortgage-rates-get-over-4\/\",\"name\":\"When will mortgage rates get over 4%? 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