{"id":2274,"date":"2021-06-03T20:29:20","date_gmt":"2021-06-03T20:29:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/03\/why-we-can-have-record-sales-and-low-housing-inventory\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:37:47","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:37:47","slug":"why-we-can-have-record-sales-and-low-housing-inventory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/03\/why-we-can-have-record-sales-and-low-housing-inventory\/","title":{"rendered":"Here’s why we can have record sales but low housing inventory"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Much is discussed about the record low housing inventory in today’s market. But, there are homes to sell. Here’s the explanation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s projected that 7.1 million homes<\/a> will be sold in the U.S. in 2021, up from 6.5 million last year. Just as impressive is that Redfin forecasts a record-setting $2.53 trillion worth of homes will be sold this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe U.S. housing market has undergone a meteoric rise during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by record-low mortgage rates and a wave of migration made possible by remote work,\u201d Redfin observes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But how is the torrid pace of home sales possible as housing inventories sit at or near rock-bottom levels, with only a 4.4-month supply<\/a> recorded across the U.S. in April?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Low housing inventory is somewhat deceptive<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Jeff Hefel<\/a>, managing broker of Ruhl&Ruhl Realtors in Dubuque, Iowa, and Galena, Illinois, explained that any housing inventory<\/a> figure is deceptive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat is standing inventory, and nothing stands on the market too long,\u201d Hefel said. \u201cListings are coming on regularly, but are selling so quickly that a market snapshot at any point will show a low inventory compared to the total number of listings, including pending sales.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe standing inventory is low and home sales are high because homes are leaving the market at essentially the same pace they are coming on the market,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, Patrick Conner, president of London Properties<\/a> in Fresno, California, said he\u2019s adopted the mindset that inventory is not low \u2014 there\u2019s just not much standing inventory. California\u2019s Central Valley recently had anywhere from a 0.8-month to one-month supply of homes, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stop focusing on inventory<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

York Baur, CEO of Seattle-based real estate technology provider MoxiWorks<\/a>, believes the industry focuses too much on inventory figures. Inventory, he said, \u201cis simply the momentary level of the reservoir\u201d and fails to take sales velocity into consideration. He prefers to think of the current scenario as a listing shortage rather than an inventory shortage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMarkets are ultimately efficient. We tend to get lost in diving down in rabbit holes about \u2018why\u2019 and \u2018what,\u2019 but fundamentally, it\u2019s driven by supply and demand,\u201d Baur said. \u201cFundamentally, supply-and-demand economics will balance things out. Yes, it\u2019s a little weird right now, but this too shall pass.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do off-market listing play a role?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

So, how is the sales-versus-inventory equation being affected by off-market \u201cpocket\u201d listings<\/a>? Very little.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the one-year period ended in March, pocket listings made up just 3% of sales, according to Redfin data cited by The Wall Street Journal<\/em>. That\u2019s up from 2.6% at the same time in 2020 and 2.5% at the same time in 2019. Baur called that \u201ca rounding error\u201d when stacked up against the overall market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hefel said that in California\u2019s Central Valley, a \u201cstill small, but unusually high, number of deals are happening outside the MLS, with people literally just putting a cheap for-sale sign in the yard and selling the first day.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regardless of how the homes are being sold, they\u2019re going fast and there is low housing inventory, but there are homes to sell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The median number of days on the market for the 133 home listings sold in April in the Central Valley stood at three, according to Hefel. In Conner\u2019s territory, the average number of days on the market was 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have anywhere from three to 12 offers on listings, with offer prices going anywhere from $2,000 to $45,000 over asking,\u201d Hefel said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, for now, it appears that housing inventory will remain low, at least for a bit, according to Zillow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were\u00a0signs in March<\/a>\u00a0that the years-long, virtually uninterrupted nationwide decline in inventory may have begun turning a corner. But rather than making gains in April, the inventory deficit appears to have deepened slightly instead \u2014 total U.S. inventory was down 30.3% from April 2020 and 1.4% from March, from 30% year-over-year and 0.8% monthly declines in March. In some large markets, including Raleigh (-54%), Cleveland (-50%) and Providence (-45%), there were roughly half as many (or fewer) homes on the market this April compared to last. Even so, the past two monthly declines are much shallower than the month-month declines registered in January and February, and we may be seeing a period in which inventory declines simply level off for a while before we see meaningful increases. A majority of experts recently surveyed by Zillow said they\u00a0expect inventory to begin growing again<\/a>\u00a0in the second half of this year or early 2022. And like March, the national picture obscures some encouraging local trends. Inventory was up in April from March in 29 of the nation\u2019s 50 largest markets, and was flat in a 30th market. Compared to a year ago, inventory was up in three large markets: San Jose (+37%), San Francisco (+32%) and Seattle (+3%).<\/p>—Zillow April Market Report<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

As we head into the summer moving season, we expect inventory to increase slowly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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