{"id":2138,"date":"2021-03-25T05:31:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-25T05:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/25\/predictions-from-uli-housing-market-outlook-2021\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T02:37:08","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T02:37:08","slug":"predictions-from-uli-housing-market-outlook-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/25\/predictions-from-uli-housing-market-outlook-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Predictions from ULI’s 2021 Housing Market Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Post-pandemic buyers have more savings than ever before, more options for where they can live and work and many want to move, but painfully low for-sale inventory levels continue to plague the housing market. What will that mean for the market outlook as we head into the spring\/summer buyer season and beyond? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zonda Chief Economist Ali Wolf, a keynote speaker last week at the Urban Land Institute Terwilliger Center\u2019s 2021 Housing Opportunity Conference, said that Zonda predicts that the low inventory issues won\u2019t be fixed overnight, but several other positive factors should keep the housing market outlook strong, even as the industry sees major shifts in certain buyer and seller needs. ULI<\/a> also released its 2021 Home Attainability Index<\/a> at the conference.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEverything we used to know is getting broken\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The pandemic has upended certain trends, presented new challenges and created a slew of emerging markets, Wolf said. Price growth in certain markets is off the charts in all three tiers\u2014luxury, move-up and entry level\u2014and appreciation is basically increasing at the same rate in all three, as well. This is a unique growth curve that creates an opportunity for existing homeowners who are looking to move up in their home purchase, especially those who have paid off some of their existing mortgage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHistorically, the bottom tier, the lowest price point \u2026 generally has more home price appreciation because of the larger buyer pool,\u201d Wolf said. \u201cWe\u2019re seeing now that basically everything we used to know is getting broken, because now all three of these groups are basically moving together, up nationally eight to 9% year over year.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Record low interest rates have been and will continue to be a game changer for some buyers in the 2021 market outlook, according to Wolf. Buyers who see that homes in their area are significantly more expensive this year than last worry they can\u2019t afford a home. But over the last year, as interest rates fell from 3.5% to 3%, depending on the market outlook, buyers can save between $75 and $200 per month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs we look at home prices, the first thing we have to acknowledge, as industry professionals, is that monthly payments matter,\u201d Wolf said. \u201cWe\u2019re looking at Orlando\u2019s home prices and the interest rate. What we see is today\u2019s monthly payment in Orlando, even after prices have gone up so much, is equivalent to 2017 levels.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wolf\u2019s assertion is that reduced interest rates are \u201cturning back time,\u201d allowing buyers to get into homes at a monthly payment rate that\u2019s lower than they\u2019ve seen in nearly four years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The good news <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

People are bringing personal savings to home sale transactions because of the pandemic Wolf said. They\u2019re also coming with more equity in their existing homes, which will affect the market outlook into the spring\/summer buying season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLast time we had a 2.5% savings rate going into the Great Recession, and this time we had an 8% savings rate,\u201d she said. \u201cWhen COVID hit this jumped to 35%.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After 12-plus months of lockdowns and quarantines, closed businesses and eating in, Americans have amassed 12 months of historic levels of personal savings, Wolf said. In fact, Zonda data indicates that 60% of Millennials saved more money in 2020 than in 2019. In a survey, Millennials who were asked, \u201cIf you have saved more money this year compared to last, what are you doing with your savings?\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

  • 54% \u2013 Keep saving as much as I can<\/li>
  • 43% \u2013 Use it as a down payment on a house<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Wolf said that research indicates that most Millennials haven\u2019t yet bought a home due to overall affordability issues and trouble coming up with a down payment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cWell, here you go. You have a year of forced savings, three stimulus checks, and 18 months of student loan forbearance,\u201d Wolf said. \u201cThis is really impactful, for the largest living generation, the most active shopper.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Most active markets\/buyers<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

    Zonda research found there are seven main types of buyers who are currently the most active: first-time, move-up, luxury, retirees\/55+, investors, second home buyers and relocation buyers. Of those groups, pandemic-related relocation buyers are the third most active (behind first-time and move-up buyers). In some markets\u2014Bakersfield, Calif.; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; Knoxville, Tennessee; and Bend, Oregon among them\u2014more than 60% of all home searches were from out of market, according to Redfin data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cRelocation, and the ability to live wherever you want, at least for now has been a huge, huge game changer for housing, across the country.\u201d Wolf said. \u201cSomething that wasn\u2019t as prevalent a year or longer ago.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Some companies, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., for example, plan on reopening offices as vaccination rates increase. Other companies have decided to allow their employees to remain remote. Either way, Wolf said the pandemic has made it so workers are going to expect more flexibility moving forward, possibly in the form of working from home two or three days per week, and that likely won\u2019t change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cThis ability to work from home has really turbo-charged the housing market,\u201d Wolf said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Buyers, 30% of them, according to Wolf\u2019s data, want dedicated office space, larger homes and homes with more rooms. They all also want affordability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This shift to larger homes and more space presents an opportunity, especially under the weight of such tight inventory, in many metro markets across the country where buyers are increasingly looking farther away from their metro area\u2019s central business district. In fact, 70% of the best selling homes in metro areas across the country are more than 30 miles from the central business district. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cYou\u2019re seeing this across different markets, across different geographies, and that is a shift from what we were seeing last year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    When searching for new inventory, Wolf says that with buyers\u2019 location needs shifting to locations farther away from CBDs, interest in suburban areas could continue to ramp up, assuming that there\u2019s some sort of permanence to the shifting desire that WFH has allowed over the last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Predicting the end of the \u201cprisoner\u2019s dilemma\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

    Homeowners want to sell, and buyers want to buy, but Wolf says with dismally low inventory levels, each is faced with the \u201cprisoner\u2019s dilemma\u201d\u2014the game theory paradox in which two individuals each working in to further their own self-interest do not produce the optimal outcome for either party. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Wolf predicts increased vaccine delivery could help people become more comfortable with allowing unfamiliar people in their homes during the selling process, increasing overall inventory rates. She thinks home appreciation rates leveling off and consumers\u2019 continued commitment to a lifestyle or location change. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Wolf predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 3.2% throughout 2021, and said the highest rate prediction she\u2019d heard from other reputable companies is 3.5%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The risks Wolf sees to market growth over the next 12 to 18 months include continued increasing home prices, which will price out sections of buyers; people opting to spend their money on other goods and services rather than home purchases; the shortage of land supply and the cost of construction materials; and the end of student loan payment forbearance. On the other hand, Wolf said the healthy stock market, record high savings rates and stimulus money acting as both \u201cstimulant and preservation tool\u201d means that the bottom half of the economy \u201cshould come alive\u201d by the middle or end of 2021.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Post-pandemic buyers have more savings than ever before, more options for where they can live and work and many want to move, but painfully low for-sale inventory levels continue to plague the housing market. What will that mean as we head into the spring\/summer buyer season and beyond?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17461,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3255],"tags":[],"coauthors":[572],"class_list":["post-2138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archive"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPredictions from ULI's 2021 Housing Market Outlook - RealTrends - Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What will low inventory, record savings mean for the housing market outlook as we head into the spring\/summer buyer season and beyond?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/25\/predictions-from-uli-housing-market-outlook-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Predictions from ULI's 2021 Housing Market Outlook\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What will low inventory, record savings mean for the housing market outlook as we head into the spring\/summer buyer season and beyond?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/preprod.realtrends.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/25\/predictions-from-uli-housing-market-outlook-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RealTrends - 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